Risk, Uncertainty and Economic Futures

Area Yield Futures and Futures Options: Risk Management and Hedging

Imagine there exist markets for yield futures contracts as well as ordinary price futures contracts. • Intuitively one would think that a combined use of yield futures contracts and price futures contracts ought to provide a reasonable strategy for insuring revenue. • In the paper this idea is made precise. It is shown that revenue can be secured in by a combined replication of these two contra...

Uncertainty in Economic Analysis and the Economic Analysis of Uncertainty∗

Numerical modeling of economic uncertainty

Representation and modeling of economic uncertainty is addressed by different modeling methods, namely stochastic variables and probabilities, interval analysis, and fuzzy numbers, in particular triple estimates. Fo-cusing on discounted cash flow analysis numerical results are presented, comparisons are made between alter-native modeling methods, and characteristics of the methods are discussed.

Economic Uncertainty and Corruption:

Substantial research has considered numerous causes and correlates of corruption. Also, there have been many studies of the consequences of various forms of uncertainty. However, exploration of the nexus between economic uncertainty and corruption appears scarce. After providing a simple intuitive and heuristic linkage between general economic uncertainty and corruption, this paper uses a large...

Electricity pool prices: long-term uncertainty characterization for futures-market trading and risk management

Organized trading for electricity includes both the pool and the futures market. Pool prices are volatile while the prices of the futures-market products are comparatively more stable. Thus, futures-market products constitute hedging instruments to reduce the risk suffered by any market agent. Electricity market agents engage in both pool and futures market transactions seeking to maximize thei...